Based on the expectation the coming weeks and months are not in his favor, Lebanese sources familiar with these regional developments tell “Janoubia” that Hezbollah is seeking to benefit from the ensuing collapse of Lebanon and the disintegration of all its security, banking, political, and administrative institutions. That, in addition to taking advantage of the socio-economic collapse and the complete chaos.
The collapse and disintegration of the country’s institutions places all political parties in a state of complete surrender to a new founding conference, regime change, or restoration of Lebanon by performing a system format. Following that, a new modern Lebanon is established under international auspices, through a French initiative that President Emmanuel Macron described as including brand new changes in the political system following the formation of an emergency government. Thus, regime change will be necessary after exiting the current intractable crisis.
According to the same sources, Hezbollah fear the current changes in the region regarding the transformation of conflicts, becoming focused on regional waters and oil. Currently, conflicts are focused on the estuaries of water and on the Israeli maritime channels, which will be the gateway between West the East and an alternative to the Suez Canal. The Ben Gurion Canal is the gateway to “Greater Israel.” “From the Euphrates to the Nile.
While the pressure by the US will continue until negotiations favor their position, any settlement agreement in the region will undoubtedly be in favor of the Iranians, according to the sources. The Khamenei regime are only concerned with the survival of the Iranian, Farsi, and Shiite state in the midst of a Sunni Arab region as well as nuclear powers such as Pakistan and India. Additionally, Israel also possesses nuclear capabilities, and it is not unexpected that the Emirates and Saudi Arabia announce soon their acquisition of nuclear weapons.
Iran’s priority is to survive and continue to thrive despite the US sanctions and embargo worsening their economic crisis. Khaminei understands that any agreement with the United States or an implicit armistice with Israel will only be temporary and for a brief period of time. Consequently, he will not hesitate in offering up or reducing the role of the Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad or even Hezbollah in the greater political equation.
Sources conclude that insofar as Israel is an American needed ally to terrify and subjugate the people of the region, Iran also appears to be needed by the US to keep the Gulf countries on their feet and ready to consume and purchase weapons and arms, thus remaining under their wing. On the other hand, Assad and Hezbollah’s heads will be the first to roll at the first sign of a major settlement!