The in the near future, the political fate of Lebanon seems to lie vaguely between secession or confederacy. The state is currently witnessing a powerful dissolution that those in power will not be able to curb after having caused it themselves. These are the very people who have been collectively driving the nation towards suicide ever since its independence!
In its current political structure, Lebanon can no longer survive. This is owing to the impossibility that the ruling class simply give up their control, assets, unlawful personal gains, and self-serving ways for the benefit of the country as a whole. It is also unlikely that the people produce a ‘miracle’ after being completely overwhelmed by fatigue, poverty, and a brutal pandemic. Instead, they must, in all cases, fight for survival and never give in regardless of the outcomes or the wait. Alternatively, some continue to wait for a long overdue initiative from abroad, in the form of a mandate or occupation. Alarmingly, the situation in Lebanon appears to have reached the point of no return!
Oh how prevalent cases of political division and separation have become in Lebanon! The reason has been the complete loss of confidence amongst the Lebanese political components. Trust between the people and ruling class has completely shattered despite loyalists that remain. Trust among the majority of the political parties has also shattered as it has between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Trust has shattered between Hezbollah and everyone else. Trust has shattered between the two heads of state Aoun, and Hariri, and between Bassil and every other Christian leader. These shards of broken trust are no longer enough to rebuild the structure that they once represented. This path can only end in bitter divorce. Attempts by Hezbollah to impose any sort of coexistence by force will also fail. They have always refused to place themselves on equal ground with others, and their goals never crossed paths with the rest. If all forces continued to tug in different directions, Lebanon will have no future, no present, and no past.
The entire political ruling class, including Hezbollah who are most dominant and influential party, have sought or are seeking to dismantle the state through their obstinacy in holding on to their same worn-out strategies and methodologies! What is frightening is the rate at which Lebanon’s political options are shrinking: From a centralized civil state, to self-governing decentralized states divided across sectarian lines (administrative decentralization alone having seemingly become non-viable), to a confederacy (similar to the Swiss system), or to a complete separation equivalent to secession. These options won’t remain open for long. They will be imposed by the upcoming living and economic challenges arising from the imminent crash of the banking sector. This crash will paralyze with it the judiciary as well as the security agencies. Two armies will then be competing in Lebanon, one that is national and another sectarian.
Many Lebanese have attempted, during the revolutions, to raise the Lebanese flag alone and call for alternatives to the current axes. However, the pandemic that has overcome this country and the world has exhausted the rebel and their attempts. Whether the Lebanese people remain revolutionary at heart and will use all means necessary to express their rejection of the current political authorities and their performance, or they remain exhausted, will not be answered before the onset of the inevitable collapse that will level everything in its path.