The specter of war is advancing in the Gulf

Salwa Fadel wrote an article over the sharply decreasing stability in the Gulf recently due to the Qatari Saudi Strife. This strife threatens the long standing stability of the regimes in that region.

Today this stability is starting to fade after the recent Saudi-Qatari crisis, as he London-based “Financial Times” reports that the Qatari crisis might be the spark of war in the Gulf.

According to the same source, “In the past years, since the start of events in Syria, the Arab world had two faces, the first is that of violence and destruction, and the second is that of globalization and modernity.

However, crises in four of the most prominent Arab countries (Syria, Iraq, Libya, and Egypt) left the Gulf to flourish at their expense, and it thus became a center of global finance, business, and tourism. The Gulf witnessed no violence or bloodshed as that in the other four countries. This situation however did not last long, as Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the UAE, and Egypt imposed a trade and political ban on Qatar on the grounds that it has continues to support radical extremists in the region especially in Syria and Libya. This course of action has caused the isolation of the Gulf States from the regional turmoil to fade away, and the Gulf is now no longer immune to the conflicts or the region as was the case before.

Will the Gulf States now experience a downturn? According to the Huffington Post, these regimes are fragile and the results of these policies will have a global impact. One of the biggest reasons that the Syrian and Libyan Crises are overlooked is because their impact on global economy is marginal unlike the Gulf States whose industrial economies have a global effect. Any shake up that may occur in the Gulf States will have an impact on global economies. The Gulf States have a significant effect that greatly exceeds their size on the global economic map. For example, Qatar is the world’s leading exported of liquefied natural gas (LFG), and the Qatari Investment Agency has significant investments and large shares in important western companies.

Dubai on the other hand has the highest tower in the World, as well as Fly Emirates which is one of the largest airlines in the world. The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) is the second largest sovereign fund in the world and one of the largest real estate owners in the world. Saudi Arabia as well leads the world in Petroleum production.

If the Gulf States do not resolve their crisis with Qatar, they are threatening their system as a whole because of the noteworthy economic embargo, led by Saudi Arabia against the Qatari state. Had the doors of Iran not been open, the repercussions on the region would have been severe. Here and now, the skill of the Lebanese politicians, noticeable in their distancing themselves from this crisis, will pay off dividends.

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