Following the Riyadh summit: Will Hezbollah preemptively withdraw from Syria?

Hassan Hammoud (Janoubia) wrote an article around the effects of the Riyadh Summit on the involvement of Hezbollah in Syria.

The final statement of the Arab Islamic American summit held by Saudi Arabia in Riyadh on Sunday, entitled “The Riyadh announcement”, declared the firm partnership between Arab and Islamic Leaders and the United States in combating terrorism and Extremism, as well as the condemnation of the hostile Iranian position and its intrusion, along with its ally Hezbollah, in other countries internal affairs. The announcement also included preparations to form a military reserve of 34 thousand soldiers to support emergency operations against terrorist organizations in Iraq and Syria.

Accordingly, there are two possible scenarios. The first scenario is similar to the events that lead up to the July 2006 war when the Arab and western countries met the reckless actions of Hezbollah and Iran towards the Arab world with strong condemnation. Consequently, the Middle East was overcome with a state of tension until Hezbollah, unfortunately, gave Israel the excuse to launch an all out war against Hezbollah which was, because of the prevailing situation, supported by the Gulf and most Arab countries.

Based on what ensued, we find that we are facing this possibility after the Riyadh summit, which is the risk of an all out war against Iran and Hezbollah because of their constant interference in internal affairs of Arab and Gulf countries. It is still unclear who will launch this attack, but it will be supported by Saudi Arabia and the United States.

The second possible scenario that might result from this summit could be a military mobilization performed by the Gulf and the United States with advanced weaponry declaring another war on terrorism. This could mean the infiltration of Syria and the expulsion of all terrorist forces including Hezbollah, that was recently included in the list, making way for a new settlement to be decided in the region that, as appears, neither Iran, Hezbollah, Nor al-Assad will have a part in.

Hezbollah, in this scenario, should be aware of the ensuing dangers and withdraw unconditionally from Syria as soon as possible without seeking rewards from the within Lebanon. It should be done out of keenness to keep Lebanon and its people safe as Hezbollah has always claimed to strive for. In addition to keeping Lebanon out of a war that will never benefit it, Hezbollah can by doing so also possibly make amends between the political parties that he has created very deep rivalries with throughout the years, and perhaps rebuild a free and independent country so that we never come to the point of repeating the famous saying: “If I had known”.

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