Onward Towards Catastrophe

الثورة اللبنانية

When President Emmanuel Macron believed he could deal with the same elected political class and expect a different performance on the political, moral, or financial level, he was gravely mistaken! It would have been better for President Macron to work on replacing the current political class with a new generation of leaders who know more, understand better, and are able to produce results. In Lebanon, this generation is in abundance.

It is not possible for those who have lost the trust of the people and the international community to stubbornly and arrogantly cling on to the claim that they have the solution, or that they are a part of it. “Attempting the same thing over and over and expecting different results is the definition of insanity” is a popular Lebanese proverb. What is needed today to prevent total collapse is humility from all parties and betting on a new group of capable independents who can repair burnt bridges internally and with the international community.

The restoration of the economy cannot occur without an influx of 10-20 billion dollars into the banks and the market in parallel with sufficient accountability for those who stole and smuggled money abroad. If the majority of the sources of relief are sealed, our best bet is the Arab/Gulf nations. Everything else is a waste of time. Local sources, while plenty, are depleted and need a long time to regain confidence. The World Bank, with its US imposed conditions, are too hefty for our politicians. In-house reform, on the other hand, requires a judicial revolution that will be very costly.

Rejecting all these available options—from restoring trust with Lebanese or Arab nations—is nothing short of suicide. From here on out, decisions and positions taken ought to be clear and thorough. That means, for example, that Hezbollah cannot agree to a cabinet of experts and continue their hostile pursuits against the Gulf States. Otherwise, well will continue slowly going down the road to catastrophe as subsidies are about to be lifted. For Banque du Liban, the road to catastrophe is not a choice, as their bankruptcy that was ushered in by decades of fraud and misuse of deposits is an undeniable fact.

The problem in Lebanon is that there are those who consider disaster a better alternative to letting go of their leaders. Meanwhile, many within the revolution are fighting against this. So far is appears, unfortunately, that the latter are winning.

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